polls give Independent Angus King the lead in Maine’s Senate race

Two polls have given Independent Angus King a sizeable lead over his two opponents for Maine’s U.S. Senate seat. The former governor is ahead of Republican Charlie Summers and Democrat Cynthia Dill, although his lead appears to be shrinking. 

A public opinion survey conducted by the Maine People’s Resource Center in September found that 43.8 percent of likely voters in Maine plan to vote for King, while 28.2 percent support Summers and 14.9 percent prefer Dill. Another 6.1 percent support a different candidate and 7.1 percent remain undecided.

A separate poll from Public Policy Polling gave King a narrower lead over Summers. The poll found that 43 percent of voters support King, compared to 35 percent for Summers and 14 percent for Dill. Another 8 percent are undecided.

Although that’s still a lead of 8 percentage points over his closest opponent, the poll showed that support for King is dwindling. The latest PPP poll found that 52 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of King and 35 percent have an unfavorable one, giving him a net favorability rating of +17 percent. A March poll gave him a net favorability rating of +38 percent, meaning his rating has dropped by 21 percent over the last six month, according to Public Policy Polling.

“The Maine Senate race is closer now than anyone really expected it to be,” PPP president Dean Debnam said in a statement. “Angus King is losing more Democrats than he is picking up Republicans and although he remains the favorite, a victory for him is not as inevitable as it used to be.”

King served two four-year terms as Maine’s governor, winning elections in 1994 and 1998. Although he is an Independent, he generally sides with Democrats more often than Republicans on most issues. But King has not indicated which party he would caucus with as a U.S. senator.
Summers is Maine’s current Secretary of State, elected in 2010. Dill, a self-proclaimed progressive, served in Maine’s House of Representatives from 2007 to 2011 before winning a special election to the state Senate last year.

All three candidates are seeking to replace Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe, who is not running for reelection in November.

The decline in King’s ratings is sharpest among Republicans, only 22 percent of whom have a favorable opinion of him, down from 43 percent in March. Only 13 percent of Republicans plan to vote for him, according to the PPP poll.

King is much more popular among Democrats, but he may need to do even better to secure a victory. The MPRC found that nearly 28 percent of Democratic voters support Dill, while the PPP found that 26 percent support her. The PPP also found that, if King is elected, 43 percent of voters want him to caucus with Democrats and 30 percent want him to caucus with Republicans (28 percent are not sure).

Both of the polls were conducted in mid-September and included more than 800 likely Maine voters.