Neck and neck
The latest Granite State Polls show tight races for governor, congress, and the state Legislature in New Hampshire.
With the general election less than a month away, New Hampshire’s gubernatorial candidates are in a virtual tie, according to the UNH Survey Center’s latest Granite State Poll. And while Democrats maintain slim leads in several other state and federal races, most are too close to predict an outcome in November.
The gubernatorial poll, which included more than 600 adults interviewed between Sept. 27 and 30, found that 38 percent of likely voters plan to vote for Democrat Maggie Hassan, while 36 percent prefer Republican Ovide Lamontagne. That’s within the 4 percent margin of error, meaning it’s essentially a tie.
What’s more, 25 percent of voters are still undecided on the race for governor, and both candidates remain largely unknown to the general public.
The poll found that 38 percent of voters view Hassan favorably, while 22 percent view her unfavorably and 5 percent are neutral. That gives the former three-term state senator a net favorability rating of +16 percent, up from +8 percent in August. But 35 percent said they don’t know enough about Hassan to have an opinion.
Lamontagne, who unsuccessfully ran for governor in 1996 and U.S. Senate in 2010, is better known than Hassan but is viewed less favorably. The poll found that 36 percent of voters view Lamontagne favorably, while 33 percent view him unfavorably and 5 percent are neutral. His net favorability rating is +3 percent, down from +10 percent in August. Twenty-six percent don’t know enough about him to say.
Libertarian gubernatorial candidate John Babiarz has a net favorability rating of +2 percent, but he is unknown to 87 percent of voters.
All three candidates are vying to replace Gov. John Lynch, who has opted not to run for a fifth term. Lynch, a Democrat, is one of the most popular governors in state history, and still maintains a high favorability rating of +57 percent.
With Lynch out of the picture, Republicans see an opportunity to win the governor’s seat. If they can also retain their majorities in the state House of Representatives and Senate, the GOP would have complete control over the State House.
But that won’t be easy, according to a separate Granite State Poll conducted during the same time period. It found that the state is split on how good a job the current Legislature is doing, with 41 percent saying they approve, 36 percent saying they disapprove, and 23 percent saying they are neutral or don’t know.
The same poll asked voters which party’s candidates they plan to vote for in the upcoming election for state representatives. The poll gave Democrats an edge, indicating that 40 percent plan to vote for Democratic candidates, 33 percent plan to vote for Republicans, and 22 percent are undecided. Another 5 percent plan to vote for a third party or a mix of Democrats and Republicans.
Numbers for the state Senate elections are similar. According to the poll, 42 percent of voters plan to vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, while 36 percent support the Republican candidate and 21 percent are undecided.
Democrats have a somewhat bigger advantage in the First District Congressional race. A poll found that 46 percent of voters favor Democrat Carol Shea-Porter, who served two terms in Congress from 2006 to 2010. Thirty-five percent favor incumbent Republican Frank Guinta, and 18 percent are undecided. The poll found that Guinta’s favorability rating is -1 percent, while Shea-Porter’s is +14 percent.
The Second District Congressional race is much closer, with 36 percent of voters supporting Democrat Ann McLane Kuster and 34 percent supporting incumbent Republican Charlie Bass, who defeated Kuster in 2010. Twenty-eight percent remain undecided.
Yet another Granite State Poll found that President Barack Obama leads Republican nominee Mitt Romney by 15 percentage points, up from 5 percentage points a month earlier. The poll found that 52 percent of likely New Hampshire voters support Obama, while 37 percent support Romney and 9 percent are undecided.
While an earlier poll found Republican voters were more motivated than Democrats, that trend has reversed. The latest poll found that 52 percent of voters who are “extremely interested” in the race support Obama, while 40 percent support Romney.
Those numbers may have shifted since the poll was released, as the first presidential debate took place on Oct. 3, and new unemployment numbers have emerged.
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